Statistical patterns of theory uncertainties

A comprehensive uncertainty estimation is vital for the precision program of LHC. While experimental uncertainties are often described by stochastic processes and well-defined nuisance parameters, theoretical lack such a description. We study estimates cross-section predictions based on scale variations across large set processes. find patterns similar to origin, with accurate mediated strong force, but systematic underestimate electroweak propose an improved scheme, variation reference processes, which reduces outliers in mapping from leading order next-to-leading-order perturbation theory.